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Monday, May 14, 2007

Most Traders Loose Money?

There is a believe that 80% of investors earn money but 80% of traders loose money… How true is this? Hmm… Logically, I think this is sad but may be quite true. Why do I say that? Well, I believe the answer lies in the time frame…

I think one of the major differences between investing and trading is the time frame. After all, sooner or later even investors need to sell their shares for the profit. The difference is the holding time. The shorter the time frame, the more accuracy is needed in the entry and exit. This is why, investors who are supposed to hold their stocks for a long time, can use time to dilute their accuracy of entry. This probably explains why the chances for investors to make money is so much higher.

As for traders, the time of holding is a lot more shorter. So, accuracy is far more important. However, lets not forget that trading also has different time frames, from intraday to trend following. So the accuracy needed will also differ. So, it is the accuracy of entry and exit that will determine the success rate of trading. Since we mentioned that the success rate of traders is so low, that means the accuracy of most traders are extremely low… Hmm… Why is it so?

For traders to time their entry and exit, a method called Technical Analysis (TA) is used. However, this method is not as easy as we would hope it to be. Not only that there is no single method that can be used to time the entry and exit perfectly for every counter, this is complicated more when the market changes. This makes it crucial for traders who use TA to keep on learning and adjust to the market. Which is why, I believe it is always important not only to know how to use the indicators, but it is even more important to understand how the indicators were made. Only by knowing how it is made, we are able to adjust them to fit the market. The market is a highly fluid condition, so if we are not able to adjust, our so called super accurately winning strategy of indicators may turn you into the biggest loser that walk the earth… Hehe… Just trying to make my point more dramatic… But seriously, never ever stop learning and adjusting. In market, the concept of “Survival Of The Fittest” is very real.

So, if you want to make it into the winning 20%, make sure your accuracy is high enough by remembering to learn and adjust… Happy learning…

9 comments:

Ben Gan said...

You got the point. Yes, time is on the side of the investor. Besides that, an investor pays more attention to fundamentals and gives priority to the safety of his capital outlay.
You also need to evolve with the market. What works long ago may not work now. By the way, "Most Traders Loose Money?" should be: "Most Traders Lose Money?"
Regards,
Ben

Trader Max said...

Time is a double edge sword.
Too short time frame - its a risk - due to the elements of randomness.
Too long a time frame - the trend has already reversed.
Moderation is the key.

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